Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and US gas not hit $3.50 by the end of 2026?

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$494.67

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 93.7¢

+46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,176

Combined PnL+$608.79

No9 traders

Total Value$64.96

Total Shares1,203

Combined PnL-$114.12

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME MenacingTurtle	Yesavg 64¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$597.3	56% 272-212 (484)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 8.3¢	$22.54	$13.93	-$7.53	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 31.1¢	$68.61	$11.91	-$56.69	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 15.4¢	$35.58	$9.25	+$17.63	47% 8368-9535 (17903)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 31.4¢	$48.34	$8.32	-$40.02	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 89.3¢	$7.19	$7.27	+$11.53	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 7.1¢	$8.93	$6.75	-$2.18	46% 10318-12012 (22330)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 89.3¢	$6.75	$6.54	-$0.21	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 89.3¢	$6.49	$6.42	-$0.07	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 89.3¢	$5.44	$5.67	+$0.23	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 12.8¢	$15.98	$5.4	-$7.44	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 10.2¢	$10.16	$5.07	-$4.45	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 31.2¢	$17.39	$4.06	-$13.33	17% 1249-5908 (7157)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 7.4¢	$0.37	$0.27	-$0.1	55% 4411-3608 (8019)

MenacingTurtle

Yes

Invested

$1,511.23

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$597.3

Record

56%

272-212 (484)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$22.54

Value

$13.93

PnL

-$7.53

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$68.61

Value

$11.91

PnL

-$56.69

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$35.58

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$17.63

Record

47%

8368-9535 (17903)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$48.34

Value

$8.32

PnL

-$40.02

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.19

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$11.53

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$8.93

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$2.18

Record

46%

10318-12012 (22330)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.75

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$0.21

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.49

Value

$6.42

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.67

PnL

+$0.23

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$15.98

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$7.44

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$4.45

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$17.39

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$13.33

Record

17%

1249-5908 (7157)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.