French election called by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.3K
-$215.02
86.5¢ → 92.2¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 88.3¢ | $1.2K | $868.73 | +$150.82 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
 DonaldinhoTrumpito | Noavg 81.4¢ | $925.5 | $778.91 | -$146.59 | 67% 501-250 (751) |
OL OLOTH | Noavg 91.1¢ | $891.56 | $670.68 | -$220.88 | 96% 746-31 (777) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $4.2 | $6.3 | +$2.1 | — |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.78 | $1.31 | -$0.47 | 77% 11143-3403 (14546) |
Invested
$1,182.18
Value
$868.73
PnL
+$150.82
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
DonaldinhoTrumpitoInvested
$925.5
Value
$778.91
PnL
-$146.59
Record
67%
501-250 (751)
Invested
$891.56
Value
$670.68
PnL
-$220.88
Record
96%
746-31 (777)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$6.3
PnL
+$2.1
Record
—
Invested
$1.78
Value
$1.31
PnL
-$0.47
Record
77%
11143-3403 (14546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.