France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.0K
$12.31
96¢ → 96.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 eCash | Noavg 95.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$9.75 | 68% 331-155 (486) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $246.41 | $248.97 | +$1.28 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 95.9¢ | $156.26 | $157.23 | +$0.97 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $96.8 | $96.5 | -$0.3 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $50.36 | $48.6 | +$0.6 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
eCashInvested
$1,438.49
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$9.75
Record
68%
331-155 (486)
Invested
$246.41
Value
$248.97
PnL
+$1.28
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
Invested
$156.26
Value
$157.23
PnL
+$0.97
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Talophex<$100Invested
$96.8
Value
$96.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
tetrase<$100Invested
$50.36
Value
$48.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.