Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.4K
-$6.73
49.1¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$14.61 | 51% 26315-24941 (51256) |
 rayvanmechelen | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $604.83 | $584.55 | -$20.25 | 53% 2617-2309 (4926) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 50.2¢ | $343.36 | $338.24 | -$5.12 | 50% 1582-1596 (3178) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Noavg 48.9¢ | $196.27 | $197.07 | +$0.8 | 50% 26084-25740 (51824) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.9¢ | $125.02 | $126.52 | +$1.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51¢ | $71.25 | $70.55 | -$0.7 | |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $192.18 | $194.29 | +$2.11 | 64% 10066-5621 (15687) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $187.52 | $189.44 | +$1.91 | 64% 10090-5691 (15781) |
Invested
$1,931.29
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$14.61
Record
51%
26315-24941 (51256)
rayvanmechelenInvested
$604.83
Value
$584.55
PnL
-$20.25
Record
53%
2617-2309 (4926)
Invested
$343.36
Value
$338.24
PnL
-$5.12
Record
50%
1582-1596 (3178)
Invested
$196.27
Value
$197.07
PnL
+$0.8
Record
50%
26084-25740 (51824)
Both legs:
Invested
$192.18
Value
$194.29
PnL
+$2.11
Record
64%
10066-5621 (15687)
Invested
$187.52
Value
$189.44
PnL
+$1.91
Record
64%
10090-5691 (15781)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.