Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Dijon Football Côte d'Or win on 2026-09-11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 24¢ · $248 held · ended Sep 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$247.59
-$5.05
26.9¢ → 23.5¢
-13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 27.1¢ | $240.04 | $161.91 | -$11.09 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 29.6¢ | $37.06 | $32.97 | -$4.09 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 86.6¢ | $32.17 | $28.18 | -$3.99 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 26.4¢ | $64.81 | $15.58 | +$12.03 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $6.85 | $8.94 | +$2.09 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
Invested
$240.04
Value
$161.91
PnL
-$11.09
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$37.06
Value
$32.97
PnL
-$4.09
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$32.17
Value
$28.18
PnL
-$3.99
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$64.81
Value
$15.58
PnL
+$12.03
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$8.94
PnL
+$2.09
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.