Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Clermont Foot 63 vs. US Boulogne Côte d'Opale end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 34¢ · $209 held · ended Sep 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$209.27
$140.07
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $90.2 | $179.22 | +$89.01 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $33.05 | $15 | +$2.95 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $73.21 | $6.27 | +$49.69 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $16.4 | $6.09 | -$1.14 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $3.14 | $2.7 | -$0.44 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
Invested
$90.2
Value
$179.22
PnL
+$89.01
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$33.05
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.95
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
Invested
$73.21
Value
$6.27
PnL
+$49.69
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$16.4
Value
$6.09
PnL
-$1.14
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$3.14
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.44
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.