Will Rodez Aveyron Football win on 2026-11-07?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (10%) · No at 59¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 7

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 10%

Total Value

$27.0K

Combined PnL

-$49.78

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares27,045

Combined PnL-$176.27

Yes9 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares26,449

Combined PnL+$126.49

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 59.2¢	$16.0K	$15.8K	-$176.27	47% 205-228 (433)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 42.2¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$232.71	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 42.2¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$51.81	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 41.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$19.89	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 41¢	$861.28	$787.76	-$73.52	49% 14981-15890 (30871)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 41.4¢	$514.16	$514.86	+$0.7	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.2¢	$63.92	$62.85	-$1.07	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.2¢	$45.36	$44.6	-$0.76	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$29.09	$29.45	+$0.35	51% 6512-6276 (12788)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$8.3	$8.3	-$0	58% 47486-34282 (81768)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$15,997.43

Value

$15.8K

PnL

-$176.27

Record

47%

205-228 (433)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,288.49

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$232.71

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,082.23

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$51.81

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,177.83

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$19.89

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$861.28

Value

$787.76

PnL

-$73.52

Record

49%

14981-15890 (30871)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$514.16

Value

$514.86

PnL

+$0.7

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.92

Value

$62.85

PnL

-$1.07

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.36

Value

$44.6

PnL

-$0.76

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.09

Value

$29.45

PnL

+$0.35

Record

51%

6512-6276 (12788)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.