Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by November 20?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 81¢ · $988 held · ends Nov 21

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$987.76

Combined PnL

-$23.7

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 80.5¢

+23% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$403.06

Total Shares498

Combined PnL+$89.21

Yes7 traders

Total Value$353.88

Total Shares1,635

Combined PnL-$112.91

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
88 881112	Noavg 65.3¢	$379.81	$355.72	+$75.9	1% 4-423 (427)
LolakisARB<$100	Yesavg 29.5¢	$297.82	$230.82	-$67	20% 8-32 (40)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.5¢	$216.4	$139.23	-$77.17
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$81.41	$91.59	+$10.18
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$125	$114.39	-$10.61	— 5-0 (5)
WarriorPoohCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$145.46	$95.08	-$50.38	— 4-3 (7)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.4¢	$76.12	$47.46	-$19.96	40% 14-21 (35)
KU kukubaja<$100	Noavg 65¢	$70.5	$47.34	+$13.3	76% 19-6 (25)
KnureKnumeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$41.56	$28.67	-$12.89	15% 15-88 (103)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.5¢	$32.13	$23.34	-$8.79	— 4-3 (7)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$30.52	$22.53	-$8	31% 146-327 (473)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$414.44	$22.43	-$2.27	39% 3600-5658 (9258)

881112

Invested

$379.81

Value

$355.72

PnL

+$75.9

Record

4-423 (427)

LolakisARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$297.82

Value

$230.82

PnL

-$67

Record

20%

8-32 (40)

Both legs:

Yes$216.429.5¢-$77.17

No$81.4172¢+$10.18

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$125

Value

$114.39

PnL

-$10.61

Record

—

5-0 (5)

WarriorPoohCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.46

Value

$95.08

PnL

-$50.38

Record

—

4-3 (7)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.12

Value

$47.46

PnL

-$19.96

Record

40%

14-21 (35)

kukubaja<$100

Invested

$70.5

Value

$47.34

PnL

+$13.3

Record

76%

19-6 (25)

KnureKnumeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.56

Value

$28.67

PnL

-$12.89

Record

15%

15-88 (103)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.13

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$8.79

Record

—

4-3 (7)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.52

Value

$22.53

PnL

-$8

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$414.44

Value

$22.43

PnL

-$2.27

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.