ES Troyes AC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 5.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.7K
$265.48
92.5¢ → 94¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 93¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | +$32.86 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 77.8¢ | $18.51 | $18.17 | +$1.65 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 74.1¢ | $17.53 | $18.15 | +$32.84 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 97.8¢ | $105.35 | $15.4 | -$89.95 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 48.1¢ | $214.47 | $5.24 | +$288.08 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
Invested
$1,805.93
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$32.86
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$18.51
Value
$18.17
PnL
+$1.65
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
RN1<$100Invested
$17.53
Value
$18.15
PnL
+$32.84
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$105.35
Value
$15.4
PnL
-$89.95
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$214.47
Value
$5.24
PnL
+$288.08
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.