ES Troyes AC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 86¢ · $6K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$6.4K
$3.7K
58.3¢ → 85.5¢
+47% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 58.9¢ | $2.8K | $4.1K | +$1.3K | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 57.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$2.3K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1 | Underavg 49.7¢ | $143.01 | $244.81 | +$107.41 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 59.7¢ | $341.07 | $51.19 | +$7.87 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 69.4¢ | $59.68 | $35.64 | +$16.4 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$2,825.71
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$1,905.81
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1Invested
$143.01
Value
$244.81
PnL
+$107.41
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$341.07
Value
$51.19
PnL
+$7.87
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$59.68
Value
$35.64
PnL
+$16.4
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.