Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Toulouse FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 43¢ · $271 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$270.53
$9.05
41.5¢ → 42.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 41.2¢ | $136.51 | $139.16 | +$8.28 | 50% 21344-21627 (42971) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.7¢ | $37.82 | $38.1 | +$0.28 | 51% 26315-24941 (51256) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $29.56 | $29.56 | +$0 | 53% 16908-15025 (31933) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $29.5 | $29.54 | +$0.05 | 50% 26084-25740 (51824) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $28.96 | $29.22 | +$0.26 | 58% 47033-33917 (80950) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $4.8 | $4.95 | +$0.17 | 52% 8839-8035 (16874) |
Invested
$136.51
Value
$139.16
PnL
+$8.28
Record
50%
21344-21627 (42971)
Invested
$37.82
Value
$38.1
PnL
+$0.28
Record
51%
26315-24941 (51256)
Invested
$29.56
Value
$29.56
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16908-15025 (31933)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$29.54
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
26084-25740 (51824)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$28.96
Value
$29.22
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
47033-33917 (80950)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.17
Record
52%
8839-8035 (16874)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.