Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: 1st Half O/U 0.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$869.2

Total Shares1,043

Combined PnL+$113.79

Under2 traders

Total Value$272.9

Total Shares1,675

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 48¢	$254.61	$680.6	+$425.99	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 78.7¢	$1.3K	$272.86	$-1.3K	72% 2540-972 (3512)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423d	Overavg 70.4¢	$1.7K	$105.41	-$334.78	50% 652-640 (1292)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$54.6	$78.16	+$23.55	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 99¢	$6	$5.03	-$0.97	95% 23103-1165 (24268)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$37.1	$0.04	-$37.07	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

RN1

Over

Invested

$254.61

Value

$680.6

PnL

+$425.99

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$1,263.83

Value

$272.86

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

72%

2540-972 (3512)

0xbf2342fds234423d

Over

Invested

$1,681.9

Value

$105.41

PnL

-$334.78

Record

50%

652-640 (1292)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$54.6

Value

$78.16

PnL

+$23.55

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.97

Record

95%

23103-1165 (24268)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.1

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$37.07

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.