Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 77¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$36.93

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 76.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,254

Combined PnL+$34.56

Yes6 traders

Total Value$103.5

Total Shares373

Combined PnL+$2.37

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$28.22	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
AN Anon455	Noavg 70¢	$786.34	$848.77	+$62.43	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 72¢	$775	$403.63	+$3.13	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$306	$303.88	-$2.13
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$94.5	$99.75	+$5.25
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$356.25	$330.13	-$5.13	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.5¢	$210.25	$207.63	-$2.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.3¢	$121.67	$122.5	-$2.5
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72¢	$223.67	$159.92	-$1.12	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
NM NM-P	Noavg 72¢	$157.47	$126.46	+$1.46	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
PA Pan9XCTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$172.35	$72.2	+$1.73	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 78¢	$58.48	$57.77	-$0.71	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$39	$37.75	-$1.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.8¢	$19.48	$20.02	+$0.54
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$17.64	$17.96	+$0.32	53% 18728-16772 (35500)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$23.11	$6.59	+$0.12	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$9.51	$2.71	+$0.14	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$9.21	$2.63	+$0.05	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$5	$1.43	+$0.03	48% 2032-2230 (4262)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,394.01

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$28.22

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Anon455

Invested

$786.34

Value

$848.77

PnL

+$62.43

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$775

Value

$403.63

PnL

+$3.13

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

No$30672¢-$2.13

Yes$94.527¢+$5.25

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$356.25

Value

$330.13

PnL

-$5.13

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

No$210.2576.5¢-$2.63

Yes$121.6724.3¢-$2.5

VeryLucky888

Invested

$223.67

Value

$159.92

PnL

-$1.12

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

NM-P

Invested

$157.47

Value

$126.46

PnL

+$1.46

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Pan9XCTR

Yes

Invested

$172.35

Value

$72.2

PnL

+$1.73

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$58.48

Value

$57.77

PnL

-$0.71

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

Both legs:

Invested

$17.64

Value

$17.96

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

18728-16772 (35500)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.11

Value

$6.59

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.51

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.21

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.