Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 77¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$441.87

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 76.5¢

+64% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,033

Combined PnL+$984.02

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,282

Combined PnL-$542.15

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 47.9¢	$1.8K	$2.7K	+$885.96	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
AP apprentice15CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$960	$640	-$320	43% 507-674 (1181)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 42¢	$525	$262.5	+$42	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
VE Venusian	Noavg 41.6¢	$478.05	$239.02	+$39.98	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 58.7¢	$274.29	$233.64	-$40.64	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 52.6¢	$477.26	$230.37	-$181.47	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$69.46	$73.51	+$16.93	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
└ No leg	Noavg 36.1¢	$21.81	$45.91	+$20.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$31.05	$27.6	-$3.45
LI Limousin	Noavg 43¢	$146.6	$73.3	+$10.26	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 47¢	$143.27	$71.64	+$4.3	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 42¢	$11.03	$5.63	+$0.99	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 44¢	$8.63	$4.32	+$0.52	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$2.87	$2.84	-$0.03	53% 2967-2581 (5548)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,811.08

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$885.96

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

apprentice15CTR

Yes

Invested

$960

Value

$640

PnL

-$320

Record

43%

507-674 (1181)

SnakeBall

Invested

$525

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$42

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Venusian

Invested

$478.05

Value

$239.02

PnL

+$39.98

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$274.29

Value

$233.64

PnL

-$40.64

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$477.26

Value

$230.37

PnL

-$181.47

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.46

Value

$73.51

PnL

+$16.93

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Both legs:

No$21.8136.1¢+$20.38

Yes$31.0527¢-$3.45

Limousin

Invested

$146.6

Value

$73.3

PnL

+$10.26

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadox

Invested

$143.27

Value

$71.64

PnL

+$4.3

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$11.03

Value

$5.63

PnL

+$0.99

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$8.63

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.52

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

2967-2581 (5548)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.