Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Racing Club de Lens (63%) · Racing Club de Lens at 89¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8
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Neutral
Racing Club de Lens
8
Racing Club de Lens 63%
$9.4K
$818.88
80.9¢ → 88.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRacing Club de Lens at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Racing Club de Lens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Racing Club de Lensavg 82.7¢ | $6.2K | $6.6K | +$467.02 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Racing Club de Lensavg 75¢ | $2.0K | $2.4K | +$375.91 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
AN Anon455 | Racing Club de Lensavg 85¢ | $212.5 | $210 | -$2.5 | 54% 3933-3292 (7225) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Racing Club de Lensavg 87¢ | $79.24 | $80.91 | +$1.67 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Racing Club de Lensavg 85.6¢ | $69.32 | $57.31 | -$5.99 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Olympique de Marseilleavg 27¢ | $27 | $11 | -$16 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Olympique de Marseilleavg 14¢ | $1.85 | $1.45 | -$0.4 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Olympique de Marseilleavg 18¢ | $2.16 | $1.32 | -$0.84 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
Invested
$6,175.24
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$467.02
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$2,014.14
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$375.91
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Invested
$212.5
Value
$210
PnL
-$2.5
Record
54%
3933-3292 (7225)
Invested
$79.24
Value
$80.91
PnL
+$1.67
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$69.32
Value
$57.31
PnL
-$5.99
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$27
Value
$11
PnL
-$16
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0.4
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$0.84
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Racing Club de Lens — $6.6K
GoalLineGhost
Racing Club de Lens — $2.4K
Anon455
Racing Club de Lens — $210
SnakeBall
Racing Club de Lens — $80.91
Pan9X
Racing Club de Lens — $57.31
38791873984189
CTROlympique de Marseille — $11
LightParadox
CTROlympique de Marseille — $1.45
RN1
CTROlympique de Marseille — $1.32