Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$18.43
56.7¢ → 57.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 57¢ | $609.53 | $614.38 | +$11.01 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 56.4¢ | $251.19 | $256.26 | +$5.08 | 64% 10163-5703 (15866) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 56¢ | $159.58 | $163.85 | +$4.27 | 64% 10165-5759 (15924) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.5¢ | $32.01 | $29.92 | -$1.76 | 53% 16960-15081 (32041) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $4.97 | $4.8 | -$0.17 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
Invested
$609.53
Value
$614.38
PnL
+$11.01
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$251.19
Value
$256.26
PnL
+$5.08
Record
64%
10163-5703 (15866)
Invested
$159.58
Value
$163.85
PnL
+$4.27
Record
64%
10165-5759 (15924)
Invested
$32.01
Value
$29.92
PnL
-$1.76
Record
53%
16960-15081 (32041)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.17
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.