Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-11-08?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 52¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8

Yes49¢No51¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 51.5¢

-24% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares11,643

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,337

Combined PnL+$425.32

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	-$749.33	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.3¢	$3.3K	$2.5K	-$733.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.5¢	$753.2	$737.32	-$15.88
XW xwingboy	Noavg 70¢	$4.6K	$3.2K	$-1.4K	66% 368-190 (558)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$101.94	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.2¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$411.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.9¢	$463.33	$772.98	+$309.64
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$43.84	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$44.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.6¢	$377.77	$376.88	-$0.89
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$712.53	$1.2K	+$475.02	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 52¢	$975	$965.63	-$9.38	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$964.15	$918.24	-$45.91	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
AN Anon455	Noavg 68.9¢	$1.0K	$738.2	-$290.38	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$582	$583	+$1	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31¢	$310	$305	-$5
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$272	$278	+$6
LI LightParadox	Noavg 68.1¢	$14.04	$518.69	+$11.3	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 69¢	$669.9	$470.87	-$199.03	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 60.9¢	$599.68	$467.95	-$131.72	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
PT PT-S7ARB<$100	Noavg 56¢	$182.33	$179.56	-$2.77	46% 3487-4033 (7520)
└ No leg	Noavg 56¢	$144.51	$133	-$11.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.4¢	$37.82	$46.56	+$8.74
PA Pan9X	Noavg 53.1¢	$195.06	$177.99	-$17.07	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 66¢	$105.89	$109.9	+$4.01	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 52.7¢	$115.84	$104.4	-$11.44	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 69¢	$62.1	$62.55	+$0.45	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 52¢	$52	$50	-$2	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$7.8	$13.39	+$5.59	41% 3599-5108 (8707)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 47¢	$12.07	$12.45	+$0.39	53% 15485-13736 (29221)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$4,033.01

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$749.33

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

No$3,279.8166.3¢-$733.46

Yes$753.249.5¢-$15.88

xwingboy

Invested

$4,585.01

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

66%

368-190 (558)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,944.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$101.94

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

No$1,481.3367.2¢-$411.59

Yes$463.3330.9¢+$309.64

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,531.16

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$43.84

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

No$1,153.3966.9¢+$44.73

Yes$377.7730.6¢-$0.89

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$712.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$475.02

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$975

Value

$965.63

PnL

-$9.38

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$964.15

Value

$918.24

PnL

-$45.91

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

Anon455

Invested

$1,028.58

Value

$738.2

PnL

-$290.38

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$582

Value

$583

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

Both legs:

Yes$31031¢-$5

No$27268¢+$6

LightParadox

Invested

$14.04

Value

$518.69

PnL

+$11.3

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

SnakeBall

Invested

$669.9

Value

$470.87

PnL

-$199.03

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$599.68

Value

$467.95

PnL

-$131.72

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

PT-S7ARB<$100

Invested

$182.33

Value

$179.56

PnL

-$2.77

Record

46%

3487-4033 (7520)

Both legs:

No$144.5156¢-$11.51

Yes$37.8239.4¢+$8.74

Pan9X

Invested

$195.06

Value

$177.99

PnL

-$17.07

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$105.89

Value

$109.9

PnL

+$4.01

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

38791873984189

Invested

$115.84

Value

$104.4

PnL

-$11.44

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$62.1

Value

$62.55

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$52

Value

$50

PnL

-$2

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$13.39

PnL

+$5.59

Record

41%

3599-5108 (8707)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$12.07

Value

$12.45

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

15485-13736 (29221)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.