Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-11-07?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$31.69

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 95.6¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,905

Combined PnL-$15.88

Yes6 traders

Total Value$433.11

Total Shares10,312

Combined PnL-$15.81

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 96.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$5.54	64% 10113-5660 (15773)
GC GC-P	Noavg 96.2¢	$937.13	$930.85	-$6.76	64% 10131-5728 (15859)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.3¢	$374.98	$373.42	-$1.57	50% 38089-37336 (75425)
CA Cannae	Noavg 96.2¢	$331.85	$329.66	-$2.22	53% 16952-15078 (32030)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$154.42	$160.04	+$5.62	51% 1749-1699 (3448)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 4.6¢	$153.94	$140.64	-$13.31	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$98.07	$89.35	-$8.73	49% 1721-1768 (3489)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$45.92	$45.82	-$0.1	48% 7430-7967 (15397)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$37.47	$37.5	+$0.03	48% 1655-1767 (3422)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$26.92	$26.92	+$0	46% 5267-6109 (11376)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$20	$19.11	-$0.15	48% 3359-3586 (6945)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$14.15	$14.13	+$0.1	50% 26223-25873 (52096)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$12.94	$13.26	+$0.32	49% 1684-1757 (3441)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$6.02	$11.22	+$0.33	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$2.71	$2.91	+$0.29	50% 21456-21716 (43172)

NM-P

Invested

$1,111.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$5.54

Record

64%

10113-5660 (15773)

GC-P

Invested

$937.13

Value

$930.85

PnL

-$6.76

Record

64%

10131-5728 (15859)

SnakeBall

Invested

$374.98

Value

$373.42

PnL

-$1.57

Record

50%

38089-37336 (75425)

Cannae

Invested

$331.85

Value

$329.66

PnL

-$2.22

Record

53%

16952-15078 (32030)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$154.42

Value

$160.04

PnL

+$5.62

Record

51%

1749-1699 (3448)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.94

Value

$140.64

PnL

-$13.31

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.07

Value

$89.35

PnL

-$8.73

Record

49%

1721-1768 (3489)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$45.92

Value

$45.82

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

7430-7967 (15397)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$37.47

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

1655-1767 (3422)

hi774cCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.92

Value

$26.92

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

5267-6109 (11376)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.11

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

3359-3586 (6945)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$14.15

Value

$14.13

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

26223-25873 (52096)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.94

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

1684-1757 (3441)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

21456-21716 (43172)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.