Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ES Troyes AC: O/U 3.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$7.24
52.9¢ → 51.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$26.92 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53¢ | $736 | $715.17 | -$20.83 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49¢ | $584.95 | $578.87 | -$6.09 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $525 | $520 | -$10 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
 nigiri99 | Overavg 54.4¢ | $130.58 | $124.8 | -$5.78 | 46% 8745-10440 (19185) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.1¢ | $55.12 | $60 | +$4.88 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $28.72 | $32.35 | +$3.63 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 46.2¢ | $5.87 | $6.09 | +$0.06 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.4 | -$0.05 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 46.2¢ | $2.31 | $2.4 | +$0.03 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
Invested
$1,320.95
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$26.92
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$525
Value
$520
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
nigiri99Invested
$130.58
Value
$124.8
PnL
-$5.78
Record
46%
8745-10440 (19185)
Invested
$55.12
Value
$60
PnL
+$4.88
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$28.72
Value
$32.35
PnL
+$3.63
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$6.09
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
Invested
$2.31
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.