Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-3.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold ES Troyes AC (29%) · ES Troyes AC at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7

Paris Saint-Germain FC27¢ES Troyes AC73¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ES Troyes AC

Consensus Traders

ES Troyes AC 29%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$7.23

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 73¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralES Troyes AC at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ES Troyes AC

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Paris Saint-Germain FC27%

ES Troyes AC73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ES Troyes AC2 traders

Total Value$881.4

Total Shares1,127

Combined PnL+$24.29

Paris Saint-Germain FC5 traders

Total Value$159.09

Total Shares716

Combined PnL-$17.06

ES Troyes AC — 29%Paris Saint-Germain FC — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on ES Troyes AC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on ES Troyes AC) and the top 1000 (6 on Paris Saint-Germain FC) disagree here.

whaleES Troyes AC 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrParis Saint-Germain FC 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedES Troyes AC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Paris Saint-Germain FC 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	ES Troyes ACavg 70.9¢	$691.51	$740.77	+$24.9	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
FL Flaznorp	ES Troyes ACavg 73¢	$141.24	$140.62	-$0.61	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LI LimousinCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 29¢	$117.2	$114.6	-$2.6	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 30¢	$37.27	$28.54	-$8.72	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 31¢	$14.26	$10.12	-$4.14	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 30¢	$4.8	$3.68	-$1.12	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 28¢	$2.62	$2.15	-$0.47	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

VeryLucky888

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$691.51

Value

$740.77

PnL

+$24.9

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Flaznorp

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$141.24

Value

$140.62

PnL

-$0.61

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

LimousinCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$117.2

Value

$114.6

PnL

-$2.6

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$37.27

Value

$28.54

PnL

-$8.72

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$14.26

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$4.14

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$4.8

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$1.12

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

sentrioCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

NeutralES Troyes AC at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

ES Troyes AC

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on ES Troyes AC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on ES Troyes AC) and the top 1000 (6 on Paris Saint-Germain FC) disagree here.

whaleES Troyes AC 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrParis Saint-Germain FC 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedES Troyes AC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Paris Saint-Germain FC 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ES Troyes AC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.