Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold ES Troyes AC (46%) · ES Troyes AC at 60¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 7

Paris Saint-Germain FC41¢ES Troyes AC59¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ES Troyes AC

Consensus Traders

ES Troyes AC 46%

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

-$601.14

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 59.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralES Troyes AC at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ES Troyes AC

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Paris Saint-Germain FC41%

ES Troyes AC60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ES Troyes AC6 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares24,897

Combined PnL+$89.16

Paris Saint-Germain FC7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares16,840

Combined PnL-$690.29

ES Troyes AC — 46%Paris Saint-Germain FC — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on ES Troyes AC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on ES Troyes AC) and the top 1000 (10 on Paris Saint-Germain FC) disagree here.

whaleES Troyes AC 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrParis Saint-Germain FC 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedES Troyes AC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Paris Saint-Germain FC 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	ES Troyes ACavg 59.2¢	$12.7K	$12.7K	-$43.1	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 42¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$64.26	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
nigiri99CTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 45.4¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$249.85	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
HI hi774cCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 47.9¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$230.93	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
GO GoalLineGhost	ES Troyes ACavg 56.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$56.83	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
PU purplegattoCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 49.2¢	$714.59	$594.91	-$119.68	49% 6379-6554 (12933)
FL Flaznorp	ES Troyes ACavg 50.7¢	$396.32	$461	+$64.68	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
VeryLucky888	ES Troyes ACavg 55¢	$434	$297.5	+$5.33	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
38 38791873984189CTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 46.2¢	$207.42	$173.09	-$24.68	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SN SnakeBall<$100	ES Troyes ACavg 55¢	$67.01	$71.89	+$4.87	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 42.2¢	$33.77	$32.8	-$0.97	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
SE sentrio<$100	ES Troyes ACavg 58¢	$30.86	$31.39	+$0.53	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 40¢	$6	$6.08	+$0.08	54% 10453-8773 (19226)

ferrariChampions2026

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$12,693.65

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$43.1

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

LuckyLooCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$2,699.06

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$64.26

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

nigiri99CTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$2,323.45

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$249.85

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

hi774cCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$1,596.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$230.93

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

GoalLineGhost

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$1,196.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$56.83

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

purplegattoCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$714.59

Value

$594.91

PnL

-$119.68

Record

49%

6379-6554 (12933)

Flaznorp

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$396.32

Value

$461

PnL

+$64.68

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

VeryLucky888

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$434

Value

$297.5

PnL

+$5.33

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

38791873984189CTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$207.42

Value

$173.09

PnL

-$24.68

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

SnakeBall<$100

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$67.01

Value

$71.89

PnL

+$4.87

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

VenusianCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$33.77

Value

$32.8

PnL

-$0.97

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

sentrio<$100

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$30.86

Value

$31.39

PnL

+$0.53

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

Value

$6.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Research grade

NeutralES Troyes AC at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

ES Troyes AC

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on ES Troyes AC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on ES Troyes AC) and the top 1000 (10 on Paris Saint-Germain FC) disagree here.

whaleES Troyes AC 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrParis Saint-Germain FC 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedES Troyes AC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Paris Saint-Germain FC 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ES Troyes AC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.