Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-07?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 13¢ · $744 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 89%
$744.09
-$8.24
12.2¢ → 12.5¢
+2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 12.3¢ | $553.7 | $503.18 | -$12.9 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $90.96 | $90.96 | +$0 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $57.22 | $59.6 | +$2.38 | 39% 1339-2113 (3452) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $47.2 | $49.16 | +$1.97 | 40% 1343-2037 (3380) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $19.2 | $19.2 | +$0 | 71% 7122-2863 (9985) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 12.1¢ | $13.76 | $14.26 | +$0.5 | 50% 36339-35820 (72159) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $5.98 | $5.52 | -$0.23 | 48% 59324-63332 (122656) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $1.97 | $1.9 | +$0.03 | 64% 1892-1053 (2945) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $0.3 | $0.3 | +$0 | 53% 16518-14663 (31181) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$553.7
Value
$503.18
PnL
-$12.9
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$90.96
Value
$90.96
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$57.22
Value
$59.6
PnL
+$2.38
Record
39%
1339-2113 (3452)
Invested
$47.2
Value
$49.16
PnL
+$1.97
Record
40%
1343-2037 (3380)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$19.2
PnL
+$0
Record
71%
7122-2863 (9985)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$14.26
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
36339-35820 (72159)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.52
PnL
-$0.23
Record
48%
59324-63332 (122656)
Invested
$1.97
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.03
Record
64%
1892-1053 (2945)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16518-14663 (31181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.