Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 50¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 14%
2 arb excluded
$24.1K
-$592.05
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GG ggA11xcr | Yesavg 52.5¢ | $9.5K | $9.0K | -$443.98 | 59% 13-9 (22) |
 RN1 | Noavg 48.6¢ | $5.0K | $5.2K | +$151.92 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 48.7¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$10.76 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.7¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$78.1 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$88.86 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 50.3¢ | $4.2K | $4.0K | -$205.72 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 59.1¢ | $749.82 | $627.03 | -$122.78 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 47.9¢ | $336.53 | $351 | +$14.47 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $67.54 | $70 | +$2.46 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Yesavg 91.4¢ | $73.71 | $50.31 | -$23.4 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 91.4¢ | $50.37 | $27.55 | -$22.82 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.3¢ | $23.35 | $22.76 | -$0.58 | |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 34.1¢ | $22.73 | $34.33 | +$11.6 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
Invested
$9,481.01
Value
$9.0K
PnL
-$443.98
Record
59%
13-9 (22)
RN1Invested
$5,049.68
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$151.92
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$4,778.53
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$10.76
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,163.68
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$205.72
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$749.82
Value
$627.03
PnL
-$122.78
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$336.53
Value
$351
PnL
+$14.47
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$67.54
Value
$70
PnL
+$2.46
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$73.71
Value
$50.31
PnL
-$23.4
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.73
Value
$34.33
PnL
+$11.6
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.