Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ES Troyes AC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$13.42
54.8¢ → 54¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE sentrio | Noavg 54.3¢ | $243.23 | $242.03 | -$1.21 | 50% 26374-25995 (52369) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 55¢ | $245.3 | $240.84 | -$6.69 | 51% 38177-37419 (75596) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $100 | $108 | +$6 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $92 | -$6 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 55¢ | $165 | $162 | -$4.5 | 58% 47459-34244 (81703) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $90.99 | $90.99 | +$0 | 64% 10173-5762 (15935) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $75.99 | $75.99 | +$0 | 64% 10175-5710 (15885) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $55.24 | $54 | -$1 | 50% 21530-21816 (43346) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $2.36 | $2.3 | -$0.06 | 50% 1821-1809 (3630) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.08 | $2.2 | +$0.04 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
Invested
$243.23
Value
$242.03
PnL
-$1.21
Record
50%
26374-25995 (52369)
Invested
$245.3
Value
$240.84
PnL
-$6.69
Record
51%
38177-37419 (75596)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$165
Value
$162
PnL
-$4.5
Record
58%
47459-34244 (81703)
Invested
$90.99
Value
$90.99
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
10173-5762 (15935)
Invested
$75.99
Value
$75.99
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
10175-5710 (15885)
Invested
$55.24
Value
$54
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
21530-21816 (43346)
Invested
$2.36
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.06
Record
50%
1821-1809 (3630)
Invested
$2.08
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.