Le Mans FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 63¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$383.2

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 62.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,319

Combined PnL-$122.56

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares7,744

Combined PnL+$505.76

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dartanyan150	Overavg 67¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$120	58% 264-193 (457)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$183.32	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.5¢	$738.64	$897.21	+$158.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 61¢	$754.75	$779.49	+$24.75
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 32¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$205.11	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 26.1¢	$591.57	$805.92	+$214.36	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 33¢	$328.39	$368.19	+$39.8	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 72.6¢	$372.18	$299.66	-$10.06	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Over leg	Overavg 72.6¢	$245.3	$212.94	-$40.3
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.1¢	$56.48	$86.72	+$30.24
RN1	Overavg 73¢	$206.4	$149.64	-$1.03	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 22¢	$257.68	$73.44	+$16.75	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25.1¢	$48.87	$69.26	+$20.39	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 70.8¢	$88.44	$60.46	-$0.66	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 25.6¢	$218.36	$60.05	+$4.14	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 75¢	$26.25	$25.38	-$0.88	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$63	$17.96	+$3.47	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 22.1¢	$32.72	$9	+$1.75	50% 48537-48152 (96689)

dartanyan150

Over

Invested

$2,010

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$120

Record

58%

264-193 (457)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,493.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$183.32

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Under$738.6430.5¢+$158.57

Over$754.7561¢+$24.75

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,186.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$205.11

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$591.57

Value

$805.92

PnL

+$214.36

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$328.39

Value

$368.19

PnL

+$39.8

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$372.18

Value

$299.66

PnL

-$10.06

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Over$245.372.6¢-$40.3

Under$56.4824.1¢+$30.24

RN1

Over

Invested

$206.4

Value

$149.64

PnL

-$1.03

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$257.68

Value

$73.44

PnL

+$16.75

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.87

Value

$69.26

PnL

+$20.39

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$88.44

Value

$60.46

PnL

-$0.66

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$218.36

Value

$60.05

PnL

+$4.14

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$26.25

Value

$25.38

PnL

-$0.88

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63

Value

$17.96

PnL

+$3.47

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.72

Value

PnL

+$1.75

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.