Will Le Mans FC win on 2026-11-08?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 8

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

-$101.57

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 98.8¢

+15% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares20,746

Combined PnL-$123.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$522.22

Total Shares3,090

Combined PnL+$21.95

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 89.4¢	$7.2K	$7.1K	-$138.79	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 84¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$148.8	66% 367-188 (555)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 83.5¢	$3.1K	$2.5K	-$59.93	67% 3152-1549 (4701)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 82.1¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$99.93	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 86.4¢	$558.87	$596	+$49.04	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 91.3¢	$525.47	$564.27	+$38.8	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
VE Venusian	Noavg 87¢	$380.06	$428.08	+$48.02	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$284.07	$309.14	+$25.07	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94.5¢	$290.59	$276.92	-$13.67	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$296.26	$275.8	-$0.53	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16¢	$163.74	$179.09	+$0.06
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$97.31	$96.72	-$0.59
PA Pan9X	Noavg 91¢	$360.23	$223.8	+$7.76	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$999.99	$175	+$15	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 88.4¢	$119.5	$113.29	-$6.21	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$51.29	$35.06	-$16.23	46% 3487-4014 (7501)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$14.75	$14.71	-$0.04	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.48	$9.87	+$0.39	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$10.19	$1.78	-$0.15	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.97	$1.24	-$1.74	46% 30563-35669 (66232)

Flaznorp

Invested

$7,238.03

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$138.79

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

xwingboy

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$148.8

Record

66%

367-188 (555)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$3,062.29

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$59.93

Record

67%

3152-1549 (4701)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,356.88

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$99.93

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

38791873984189

Invested

$558.87

Value

$596

PnL

+$49.04

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

MadridTime

Invested

$525.47

Value

$564.27

PnL

+$38.8

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Venusian

Invested

$380.06

Value

$428.08

PnL

+$48.02

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$284.07

Value

$309.14

PnL

+$25.07

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

SnakeBall

Invested

$290.59

Value

$276.92

PnL

-$13.67

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$296.26

Value

$275.8

PnL

-$0.53

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Yes$163.7416¢+$0.06

No$97.3183¢-$0.59

Pan9X

Invested

$360.23

Value

$223.8

PnL

+$7.76

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$999.99

Value

$175

PnL

+$15

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$119.5

Value

$113.29

PnL

-$6.21

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.29

Value

$35.06

PnL

-$16.23

Record

46%

3487-4014 (7501)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$14.75

Value

$14.71

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$9.48

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.19

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.97

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$1.74

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.