Will OGC Nice win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 53¢ · $977 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$977.41
$6.35
52.2¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 52.3¢ | $569.7 | $571.45 | +$1.75 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 52¢ | $182 | $183.75 | +$1.75 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 52¢ | $182 | $183.75 | +$1.75 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $21.95 | $22.6 | +$0.65 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $15.4 | $15.86 | +$0.45 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
Invested
$569.7
Value
$571.45
PnL
+$1.75
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$182
Value
$183.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$182
Value
$183.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$21.95
Value
$22.6
PnL
+$0.65
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$15.4
Value
$15.86
PnL
+$0.45
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.