Will Angers SCO win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$144.24

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 99.8¢

+25% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,679

Combined PnL+$393.97

Yes7 traders

Total Value$525.85

Total Shares4,332

Combined PnL-$538.21

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 77¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	+$375	67% 3152-1549 (4701)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 17.8¢	$918.93	$448.28	-$470.65	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 90.6¢	$184.63	$203.28	+$18.66	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 96.2¢	$160.32	$166.31	+$5.99	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 94.5¢	$214.8	$125.64	-$8.31	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$768.11	$72.97	-$11.52	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$64.39	$67.57	+$3.18	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 90¢	$98.37	$55	-$0.42	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 90¢	$50	$44.75	-$0.25	46% 3487-4014 (7501)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.91	$7.97	+$0.13	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$5.13	$2.5	-$2.63	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$26.59	$0.76	-$25.83	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$27.15	$0.74	-$26.4	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$0.55	$0.53	-$0.03	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.22	$0.06	-$1.15	50% 48537-48152 (96689)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$375

Record

67%

3152-1549 (4701)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$918.93

Value

$448.28

PnL

-$470.65

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

LightParadox

Invested

$184.63

Value

$203.28

PnL

+$18.66

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

MadridTime

Invested

$160.32

Value

$166.31

PnL

+$5.99

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Pan9X

Invested

$214.8

Value

$125.64

PnL

-$8.31

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$768.11

Value

$72.97

PnL

-$11.52

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$64.39

Value

$67.57

PnL

+$3.18

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$98.37

Value

$55

PnL

-$0.42

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$44.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

3487-4014 (7501)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$8.91

Value

$7.97

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.13

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$2.63

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.59

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$25.83

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.15

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$26.4

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.15

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.