Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Paris FC win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$0.61

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 45.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$821.56

Total Shares1,820

Combined PnL+$2.06

Yes3 traders

Total Value$356.39

Total Shares654

Combined PnL-$1.45

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 46.8¢	$618.25	$594.8	-$0.45	53% 2654-2333 (4987)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 55¢	$256.59	$254.26	-$2.33	53% 16952-15078 (32030)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 45¢	$144.14	$145.74	+$1.6	64% 10113-5660 (15773)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$98.5	$99.41	+$0.91	64% 2022-1128 (3150)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$79.34	$80.23	+$0.88	64% 10131-5728 (15859)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.73	-$0.03	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.8	+$0.03	58% 47221-34058 (81279)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$618.25

Value

$594.8

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

2654-2333 (4987)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$256.59

Value

$254.26

PnL

-$2.33

Record

53%

16952-15078 (32030)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$144.14

Value

$145.74

PnL

+$1.6

Record

64%

10113-5660 (15773)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.5

Value

$99.41

PnL

+$0.91

Record

64%

2022-1128 (3150)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$79.34

Value

$80.23

PnL

+$0.88

Record

64%

10131-5728 (15859)

Flaznorp<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.