Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $406 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$405.74
$1.67
79.7¢ → 80¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 79.3¢ | $203.82 | $205.74 | +$1.91 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 80¢ | $172 | $172 | +$0 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $24.24 | $24 | -$0.24 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.