Spread: HJK Helsinki (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Vaasan Palloseura (56%) · Vaasan Palloseura at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2

HJK Helsinki46¢Vaasan Palloseura54¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vaasan Palloseura

Consensus Traders

Vaasan Palloseura 56%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$73.07

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 54.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralVaasan Palloseura at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vaasan Palloseura

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HJK Helsinki46%

Vaasan Palloseura55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HJK Helsinki4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,974

Combined PnL-$66.46

Vaasan Palloseura5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,755

Combined PnL+$139.53

HJK Helsinki — 44%Vaasan Palloseura — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Vaasan Palloseura. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on HJK Helsinki) and the top 1000 (7 on Vaasan Palloseura) disagree here.

whaleVaasan Palloseura 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrVaasan Palloseura 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHJK Helsinki 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vaasan Palloseura 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	HJK Helsinkiavg 50.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$50.38	50% 26428-26255 (52683)
FL Flaznorp	Vaasan Palloseuraavg 49.4¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$103.3	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
OM omnibus-076daa	Vaasan Palloseuraavg 50¢	$890.23	$926.65	+$36.41	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
VeryLucky888CTR	HJK Helsinkiavg 49.5¢	$299	$135	-$16	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	HJK Helsinkiavg 52¢	$95.23	$89.74	-$0.92	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
RA rabbitfoot1<$100	Vaasan Palloseuraavg 53¢	$82.67	$84.23	+$1.56	54% 1178-1021 (2199)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Vaasan Palloseuraavg 50.3¢	$48.69	$49.32	-$1.78	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	HJK Helsinkiavg 47¢	$8.7	$9.53	+$0.83	53% 8072-7288 (15360)
HRTrading<$100	Vaasan Palloseuraavg 51¢	$2.56	$2.61	+$0.05	53% 6371-5759 (12130)

GoalLineGhostCTR

HJK Helsinki

Invested

$1,391.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$50.38

Record

50%

26428-26255 (52683)

Flaznorp

Vaasan Palloseura

Invested

$1,039.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$103.3

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

omnibus-076daa

Vaasan Palloseura

Invested

$890.23

Value

$926.65

PnL

+$36.41

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

VeryLucky888CTR

HJK Helsinki

Invested

$299

Value

$135

PnL

-$16

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

suntoriCTR<$100

HJK Helsinki

Invested

$95.23

Value

$89.74

PnL

-$0.92

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

rabbitfoot1<$100

Vaasan Palloseura

Invested

$82.67

Value

$84.23

PnL

+$1.56

Record

54%

1178-1021 (2199)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Vaasan Palloseura

Invested

$48.69

Value

$49.32

PnL

-$1.78

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

HJK Helsinki

Invested

$8.7

Value

$9.53

PnL

+$0.83

Record

53%

8072-7288 (15360)

HRTrading<$100

Vaasan Palloseura

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

Research grade

NeutralVaasan Palloseura at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vaasan Palloseura

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Vaasan Palloseura. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on HJK Helsinki) and the top 1000 (7 on Vaasan Palloseura) disagree here.

whaleVaasan Palloseura 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrVaasan Palloseura 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHJK Helsinki 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vaasan Palloseura 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vaasan Palloseura wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.