FC Inter Turku vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 6.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$3.2K
$438.78
85.1¢ → 98.1¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 80.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$333.15 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 91.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$122.31 | 72% 2343-899 (3242) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 5.3¢ | $27.34 | $9.77 | -$17.57 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 64.7¢ | $1.77 | $2.66 | +$0.9 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
Invested
$1,468.8
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$333.15
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$1,432.54
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$122.31
Record
72%
2343-899 (3242)
Invested
$27.34
Value
$9.77
PnL
-$17.57
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.77
Value
$2.66
PnL
+$0.9
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.