Spread: FC Inter Turku (-1.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold IF Gnistan (29%) · IF Gnistan at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2
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Neutral
IF Gnistan
7
IF Gnistan 29%
$7.6K
$3.62
55¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralIF Gnistan at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on IF Gnistan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | IF Gnistanavg 55¢ | $4.2K | $4.3K | +$38.38 | 50% 183-181 (364) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | FC Inter Turkuavg 45¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$18.94 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
FE ferdinand2CTR | FC Inter Turkuavg 45¢ | $823.27 | $814.12 | -$9.15 | 51% 1005-965 (1970) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | FC Inter Turkuavg 44.9¢ | $632.43 | $627.23 | -$5.2 | 50% 26430-26259 (52689) |
SU suntori | IF Gnistanavg 56¢ | $103.95 | $103.02 | -$0.93 | 45% 12937-15707 (28644) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | FC Inter Turkuavg 45¢ | $94.86 | $93.81 | -$1.05 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | FC Inter Turkuavg 44¢ | $44 | $44.5 | +$0.5 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
Invested
$4,222.29
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$38.38
Record
50%
183-181 (364)
Invested
$1,704.21
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$18.94
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
Invested
$823.27
Value
$814.12
PnL
-$9.15
Record
51%
1005-965 (1970)
Invested
$632.43
Value
$627.23
PnL
-$5.2
Record
50%
26430-26259 (52689)
Invested
$103.95
Value
$103.02
PnL
-$0.93
Record
45%
12937-15707 (28644)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$94.86
Value
$93.81
PnL
-$1.05
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$44
Value
$44.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.