Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-11-02?

5 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (28%) · Yes at 71¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 2

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 28%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.7K

Combined PnL

$262

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 70.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$35.9K

Total Shares49,781

Combined PnL-$31

No13 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares41,514

Combined PnL+$293

Yes — 28%No — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fakeky	Yesavg 72.2¢	$15.5K	$15.5K	+$68.15	75% 46-15 (61)
QSQL	Yesavg 71.7¢	$12.8K	$12.8K	-$40.78	61% 20-13 (33)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 28.1¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$77.5	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
AD adururu	Yesavg 73¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$27.61	53% 393-343 (736)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Yesavg 73.1¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$30.74	53% 486-432 (918)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 28¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$74.39	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
└ No leg	Noavg 28¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$74.39
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71¢	$806	$806	+$0
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 27.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$93.26	46% 9230-10942 (20172)
RN1CTR	Noavg 27¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$75	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 29¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	50% 19821-20164 (39985)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 27.5¢	$815.19	$815.41	+$0.22	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Noavg 28¢	$613.97	$624.93	+$10.96	51% 1005-965 (1970)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Noavg 28¢	$296.3	$312.17	+$15.87	40% 1074-1636 (2710)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 27.5¢	$226.15	$239.63	+$16.48	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 29¢	$116	$114	-$2	51% 1594-1536 (3130)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$80.27	$80.24	-$0.03	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 28.1¢	$71.64	$72.75	+$1.12	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$63.2	$66.85	+$3.65	50% 2584-2581 (5165)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$46.65	$47.51	+$0.86	51% 6159-5875 (12034)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$4.06	$4.13	+$0.08	62% 1231-751 (1982)

fakeky

Yes

Invested

$15,468.91

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$68.15

Record

75%

46-15 (61)

QSQL

Yes

Invested

$12,799.18

Value

$12.8K

PnL

-$40.78

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$4,940.82

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$77.5

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

adururu

Yes

Invested

$3,807.13

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$27.61

Record

53%

393-343 (736)

oxe78sh4w98

Yes

Invested

$3,786.56

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$30.74

Record

53%

486-432 (918)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,841.13

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$74.39

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

Both legs:

No$2,035.1328¢+$74.39

Yes$80671¢+$0

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$1,690.62

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$93.26

Record

46%

9230-10942 (20172)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$75

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$1,345.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

19821-20164 (39985)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$815.19

Value

$815.41

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

ferdinand2CTR

Invested

$613.97

Value

$624.93

PnL

+$10.96

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

mouzsynapseCTR

Invested

$296.3

Value

$312.17

PnL

+$15.87

Record

40%

1074-1636 (2710)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$226.15

Value

$239.63

PnL

+$16.48

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$116

Value

$114

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

1594-1536 (3130)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.27

Value

$80.24

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$71.64

Value

$72.75

PnL

+$1.12

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Invested

$63.2

Value

$66.85

PnL

+$3.65

Record

50%

2584-2581 (5165)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$46.65

Value

$47.51

PnL

+$0.86

Record

51%

6159-5875 (12034)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.08

Record

62%

1231-751 (1982)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.