Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Vietnam win on 2026-11-11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 14¢ · $61 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$60.74
$12.2
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $35.88 | $43.68 | +$7.8 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Yesavg 58.3¢ | $8.75 | $12.75 | +$4 | — |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $2.92 | $2.73 | -$0.19 | 47% 147-167 (314) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $0.7 | $1.09 | +$0.39 | 30% 160-377 (537) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $0.11 | $0.29 | +$0.19 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $0.18 | $0.19 | +$0.01 | 43% 78-102 (180) |
Invested
$35.88
Value
$43.68
PnL
+$7.8
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$12.75
PnL
+$4
Record
—
Invested
$2.92
Value
$2.73
PnL
-$0.19
Record
47%
147-167 (314)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.39
Record
30%
160-377 (537)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.29
PnL
+$0.19
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.19
PnL
+$0.01
Record
43%
78-102 (180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.