Will Vietnam vs. Chinese Taipei end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $70 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$69.99
$2.12
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $48.98 | $50.38 | +$1.4 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $9.97 | $9.47 | -$0.5 | 24% 205-642 (847) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $3.3 | $4.24 | +$0.94 | — |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $3.6 | $4 | +$0.4 | 47% 147-167 (314) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $2.03 | $1.9 | -$0.13 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
Invested
$48.98
Value
$50.38
PnL
+$1.4
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.47
PnL
-$0.5
Record
24%
205-642 (847)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$4.24
PnL
+$0.94
Record
—
Invested
$3.6
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.4
Record
47%
147-167 (314)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.13
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.