Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-11-12?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 79¢ · $557 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$557.43
$0.43
77.4¢ → 78.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 77.2¢ | $372.16 | $378.32 | +$6.16 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
 leflaiveCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $73.83 | $67.41 | -$6.42 | — 7-7 (14) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $48.04 | $48.66 | +$0.62 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $29.41 | $29.41 | +$0 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $24.83 | $24.83 | +$0 | 33% 533-1106 (1639) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $6.79 | $6.88 | +$0.09 | 52% 184-170 (354) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $1.61 | $1.65 | +$0.04 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $0.33 | $0.28 | -$0.05 | 36% 209-368 (577) |
Invested
$372.16
Value
$378.32
PnL
+$6.16
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
leflaiveCTR<$100Invested
$73.83
Value
$67.41
PnL
-$6.42
Record
—
7-7 (14)
Invested
$48.04
Value
$48.66
PnL
+$0.62
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$29.41
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$24.83
Value
$24.83
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
533-1106 (1639)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$6.88
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
184-170 (354)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.61
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
209-368 (577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.