Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (74%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Uzbekistan vs. Russia: O/U 3.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 27¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$122.9

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 26.5¢

-44% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$309.84

Total Shares874

Combined PnL-$103.76

Under3 traders

Total Value$224.05

Total Shares321

Combined PnL-$19.14

Over — 70%Under — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+46 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 50.6¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$407.26	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$473.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.1¢	$315.12	$381.18	+$66.06
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 51.7¢	$908.88	$680.03	-$228.86	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.7¢	$692.77	$408.63	-$284.14
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.3¢	$216.11	$271.39	+$55.28
RN1CTR	Overavg 53.2¢	$347.18	$248.1	-$99.09	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
SU suntori	Underavg 73¢	$157.38	$119.69	-$2.16	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 73.1¢	$118.39	$100.47	-$17.92	52% 761-712 (1473)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$34.93	$35.6	+$0.67	46% 440-515 (955)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 39.3¢	$22.19	$14.95	-$7.24	33% 558-1109 (1667)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$5.32	$7.22	+$1.9	32% 538-1125 (1663)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.95	$3.9	+$0.94	54% 439-373 (812)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$1.9	-$0.5	33% 534-1108 (1642)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$1.28	$1.58	+$0.29	47% 522-581 (1103)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$0.3	$0.49	+$0.19	41% 544-784 (1328)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,073.29

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$407.26

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Over$1,758.1650.6¢-$473.32

Under$315.1252.1¢+$66.06

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$908.88

Value

$680.03

PnL

-$228.86

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Both legs:

Over$692.7751.7¢-$284.14

Under$216.1155.3¢+$55.28

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$347.18

Value

$248.1

PnL

-$99.09

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

suntori

Under

Invested

$157.38

Value

$119.69

PnL

-$2.16

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$118.39

Value

$100.47

PnL

-$17.92

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.93

Value

$35.6

PnL

+$0.67

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.19

Value

$14.95

PnL

-$7.24

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.32

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$1.9

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.94

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.5

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.29

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.49

PnL

+$0.19

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+46 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.