Uzbekistan vs. Russia: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 63%
$4.1K
$88.5
47.5¢ → 51.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA rabbitfoot1 | Overavg 46.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$125.73 | 2% 7-378 (385) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 47.9¢ | $2.3K | $1.2K | +$37.18 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 53.5¢ | $849.58 | $645.68 | -$71.41 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
MA MadridTime | Overavg 50¢ | $232.77 | $235.1 | +$2.33 | 33% 556-1107 (1663) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 52.7¢ | $181.53 | $169.91 | -$11.63 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 47.7¢ | $77.13 | $83.34 | +$6.21 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 55.1¢ | $35.28 | $35.24 | -$0.04 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.05 | $2.17 | +$0.13 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
Invested
$1,579.41
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$125.73
Record
2%
7-378 (385)
Invested
$2,266.6
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$37.18
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$849.58
Value
$645.68
PnL
-$71.41
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$232.77
Value
$235.1
PnL
+$2.33
Record
33%
556-1107 (1663)
Invested
$181.53
Value
$169.91
PnL
-$11.63
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$77.13
Value
$83.34
PnL
+$6.21
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
Invested
$35.28
Value
$35.24
PnL
-$0.04
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.17
PnL
+$0.13
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.