Uzbekistan vs. Russia: O/U 1.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$68.34

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 85¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,075

Combined PnL+$281.74

Under6 traders

Total Value$281.67

Total Shares2,318

Combined PnL-$350.07

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 74.4¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$269.62	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 74¢	$185.51	$188.11	+$2.6	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 26.7¢	$324.58	$182.54	-$142.04	33% 534-1108 (1642)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 27.9¢	$212.56	$60.79	-$131.35	52% 761-712 (1473)
IC ic4cream<$100	Overavg 72¢	$43.2	$51	+$7.8	4% 19-453 (472)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 27¢	$108.61	$36.2	-$72.41	33% 558-1109 (1667)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 72.4¢	$6.66	$8.38	+$1.72	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 24.8¢	$3.04	$1.1	-$1.94	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$3	$0.9	-$2.1	41% 544-784 (1328)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$0.37	$0.12	-$0.25	46% 440-515 (955)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,371.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$269.62

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$185.51

Value

$188.11

PnL

+$2.6

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$324.58

Value

$182.54

PnL

-$142.04

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$212.56

Value

$60.79

PnL

-$131.35

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

ic4cream<$100

Over

Invested

$43.2

Value

$51

PnL

+$7.8

Record

19-453 (472)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$108.61

Value

$36.2

PnL

-$72.41

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$6.66

Value

$8.38

PnL

+$1.72

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.04

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$1.94

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$2.1

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.