Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Russia (44%) · Russia at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Uzbekistan1¢Russia99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Russia

Consensus Traders

Russia 44%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$966.54

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 99¢

+19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRussia at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Russia

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Uzbekistan1%

Russia99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Russia4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,512

Combined PnL-$317.78

Uzbekistan5 traders

Total Value$124.43

Total Shares3,696

Combined PnL-$648.76

Russia — 44%Uzbekistan — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Russiaavg 84¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$344.86	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Uzbekistanavg 47¢	$88.68	$87.74	-$0.94	36% 209-368 (577)
LI LightParadox<$100	Russiaavg 50¢	$26.39	$52.25	+$25.86	33% 553-1132 (1685)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Uzbekistanavg 19.2¢	$666.19	$34.66	-$631.53	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Russiaavg 48¢	$13.84	$15.04	+$1.2	46% 440-515 (955)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Uzbekistanavg 46¢	$10.14	$1.54	-$8.6	33% 534-1108 (1642)
LR lryyy<$100	Russiaavg 52¢	$1.09	$1.12	+$0.02	44% 384-486 (870)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Uzbekistanavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.35	-$0.55	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
dips.CTR<$100	Uzbekistanavg 52¢	$7.28	$0.14	-$7.14	45% 530-649 (1179)

GoalLineGhost

Russia

Invested

$2,579.81

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$344.86

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Uzbekistan

Invested

$88.68

Value

$87.74

PnL

-$0.94

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

LightParadox<$100

Russia

Invested

$26.39

Value

$52.25

PnL

+$25.86

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

FlaznorpCTR

Uzbekistan

Invested

$666.19

Value

$34.66

PnL

-$631.53

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

SnakeBall<$100

Russia

Invested

$13.84

Value

$15.04

PnL

+$1.2

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

LimousinCTR<$100

Uzbekistan

Invested

$10.14

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$8.6

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

lryyy<$100

Russia

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.02

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Uzbekistan

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.55

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

dips.CTR<$100

Uzbekistan

Invested

$7.28

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$7.14

Record

45%

530-649 (1179)

Research grade

NeutralRussia at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Russia

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Russia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.