Will Russia win on 2026-11-12?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 52¢ · $546 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$545.88
$1.11
51.5¢ → 51.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-25 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TY Tys0n8686CTR | Yesavg 47¢ | $162.97 | $171.64 | +$8.67 | — |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53¢ | $159.53 | $152.01 | -$7.53 | 51% 1945-1901 (3846) |
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a | Noavg 49.5¢ | $102.15 | $104.17 | +$2.03 | — |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $66.25 | $65.6 | -$0.65 | 31% 423-941 (1364) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $36.94 | $35.87 | -$1.07 | 39% 407-633 (1040) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $9.42 | $9.15 | -$0.27 | 38% 167-273 (440) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $4.76 | $4.71 | -$0.05 | — |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.6 | $2.57 | -$0.03 | 31% 416-938 (1354) |
Invested
$162.97
Value
$171.64
PnL
+$8.67
Record
—
Invested
$159.53
Value
$152.01
PnL
-$7.53
Record
51%
1945-1901 (3846)
Invested
$102.15
Value
$104.17
PnL
+$2.03
Record
—
Invested
$66.25
Value
$65.6
PnL
-$0.65
Record
31%
423-941 (1364)
Invested
$36.94
Value
$35.87
PnL
-$1.07
Record
39%
407-633 (1040)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$9.15
PnL
-$0.27
Record
38%
167-273 (440)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.71
PnL
-$0.05
Record
—
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.57
PnL
-$0.03
Record
31%
416-938 (1354)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.