Uzbekistan vs. Russia: 1st Half O/U 1.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$208.7

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 100¢

+122% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$949.45

Total Shares1,192

Combined PnL+$202.26

Over3 traders

Total Value$95.19

Total Shares263

Combined PnL+$6.45

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 42.6¢	$608.84	$746.42	+$137.59	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
LI Limousin	Underavg 41¢	$59.4	$110.43	+$51.03	33% 534-1108 (1642)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 34.6¢	$75.22	$78.26	+$3.04	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
MA maxiplayer<$100	Underavg 89.2¢	$26.32	$28.34	+$2.02	— 7-3 (10)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Underavg 99¢	$27.49	$27.63	+$0.14	99% 238-3 (241)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 41¢	$11.7	$18.26	+$6.56	32% 538-1125 (1663)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$8.66	$12.5	+$3.84	46% 440-515 (955)
RN1<$100	Underavg 48¢	$8.14	$10.86	+$2.71	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$4.86	$4.43	-$0.43	36% 209-368 (577)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.25	$4.31	+$1.06	33% 558-1109 (1667)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.05	$3.2	+$1.15	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$608.84

Value

$746.42

PnL

+$137.59

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$59.4

Value

$110.43

PnL

+$51.03

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$75.22

Value

$78.26

PnL

+$3.04

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

maxiplayer<$100

Under

Invested

$26.32

Value

$28.34

PnL

+$2.02

Record

—

7-3 (10)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Under

Invested

$27.49

Value

$27.63

PnL

+$0.14

Record

99%

238-3 (241)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$11.7

Value

$18.26

PnL

+$6.56

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.66

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$3.84

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$8.14

Value

$10.86

PnL

+$2.71

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.43

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$3.25

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$1.06

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.05

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$1.15

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.