Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Russia?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$3.9K
-$394.65
90.5¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 90.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$108.18 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 91¢ | $549.04 | $603.04 | +$54 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 91.6¢ | $472.69 | $515.78 | +$43.09 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 91¢ | $138.92 | $152.58 | +$13.66 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
 RN1 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $125.27 | $138.88 | +$13.61 | 56% 4482-3456 (7938) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $51.63 | $35.13 | -$16.5 | 36% 209-368 (577) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $394.26 | $2.1 | -$392.17 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $7.26 | $0.03 | -$2.17 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
Invested
$2,527.88
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$108.18
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$549.04
Value
$603.04
PnL
+$54
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$472.69
Value
$515.78
PnL
+$43.09
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$138.92
Value
$152.58
PnL
+$13.66
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
RN1Invested
$125.27
Value
$138.88
PnL
+$13.61
Record
56%
4482-3456 (7938)
Invested
$51.63
Value
$35.13
PnL
-$16.5
Record
36%
209-368 (577)
Invested
$394.26
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$392.17
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$7.26
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.17
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.