Will Uzbekistan vs. Russia end in a draw?
5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 42%
$1.1K
-$15.9
73.6¢ → 71.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 73.6¢ | $893.7 | $874.55 | -$19.15 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $82.72 | $86.03 | +$3.31 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $39.09 | $37.42 | -$1.66 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $36.5 | $36 | -$0.5 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $17.32 | $18.37 | +$1.06 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $12.63 | $12.16 | -$0.47 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $9.52 | $9.36 | -$0.16 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $9 | $9 | +$0 | 47% 522-581 (1103) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $7.51 | $8.41 | +$0.9 | 22% 176-635 (811) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $6.25 | $7 | +$0.75 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $5.12 | $4.98 | -$0.14 | 36% 209-368 (577) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $1.8 | $1.97 | +$0.17 | 33% 558-1109 (1667) |
Invested
$893.7
Value
$874.55
PnL
-$19.15
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$82.72
Value
$86.03
PnL
+$3.31
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$39.09
Value
$37.42
PnL
-$1.66
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Invested
$36.5
Value
$36
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Invested
$17.32
Value
$18.37
PnL
+$1.06
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$12.63
Value
$12.16
PnL
-$0.47
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.36
PnL
-$0.16
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
poshposh<$100Invested
$9
Value
$9
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
522-581 (1103)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$7.51
Value
$8.41
PnL
+$0.9
Record
22%
176-635 (811)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.75
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.14
Record
36%
209-368 (577)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.97
PnL
+$0.17
Record
33%
558-1109 (1667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.