Uzbekistan vs. Russia: Both Teams to Score

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 72¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Yes72¢No28¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$716.01

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 71.5¢

+42% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,505

Combined PnL+$739.83

No4 traders

Total Value$34.22

Total Shares153

Combined PnL-$23.82

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$571.43	33% 558-1109 (1667)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 21.1¢	$460.6	$504.67	+$61.27	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ No leg	Noavg 21.1¢	$373.4	$380.64	+$7.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$77.4	$124.03	+$54.03
12monkeys	Yesavg 50¢	$218.57	$375.93	+$157.37	38% 11-18 (29)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 53.3¢	$14.28	$21.02	+$6.74	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 18.5¢	$20.24	$17.69	-$2.55	46% 440-515 (955)
NO NotJump<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$17.2	$17.2	+$0	54% 439-373 (812)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$33.07	$12.56	-$20.5	41% 544-784 (1328)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$6.5	$9.27	+$2.77	52% 761-712 (1473)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$2.99	$4.51	+$1.52	15% 29-166 (195)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$2.07	$2	-$0.07	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$2.66	$1.96	-$0.7	32% 538-1125 (1663)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$1,002.5

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$571.43

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$460.6

Value

$504.67

PnL

+$61.27

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Invested

$218.57

Value

$375.93

PnL

+$157.37

Record

38%

11-18 (29)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.28

Value

$21.02

PnL

+$6.74

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$20.24

Value

$17.69

PnL

-$2.55

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

NotJump<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.2

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$33.07

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$20.5

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$9.27

PnL

+$2.77

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.99

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$1.52

Record

15%

29-166 (195)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$2.07

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$2.66

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$0.7

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.