Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
United Arab Emirates leading at halftime?
Resolved Yes. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
No 56%
$512.75
-$191.93
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $255.97 | $485.11 | +$229.14 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 71.3¢ | $259.55 | — | -$259.55 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
LI LimousinCTR | Noavg 63.1¢ | $148.38 | — | -$148.38 | 35% 736-1380 (2116) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $11.52 | — | -$11.52 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $7.41 | $12.15 | +$4.74 | 47% 786-902 (1688) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $6.4 | $10.5 | +$4.09 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $5.77 | — | -$5.77 | 36% 326-587 (913) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $5 | +$0.6 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $5.28 | — | -$5.28 | 22% 41-145 (186) |
Invested
$255.97
Value
$485.11
PnL
+$229.14
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$259.55
Value
—
PnL
-$259.55
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$148.38
Value
—
PnL
-$148.38
Record
35%
736-1380 (2116)
Invested
$11.52
Value
—
PnL
-$11.52
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
poshposh<$100Invested
$7.41
Value
$12.15
PnL
+$4.74
Record
47%
786-902 (1688)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$4.09
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Invested
$5.77
Value
—
PnL
-$5.77
Record
36%
326-587 (913)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.6
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
Invested
$5.28
Value
—
PnL
-$5.28
Record
22%
41-145 (186)