Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-11-13?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 50¢ · $236 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$235.64
-$137.83
86.3¢ → 50¢
-42% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZZ Zzzz87 | Yesavg 86.3¢ | $325.27 | $188.5 | -$136.77 | 62% 87-54 (141) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 13.8¢ | $42.07 | $42.81 | +$0.74 | 49% 3769-3940 (7709) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $4.3 | $2.53 | -$1.77 | 62% 202-122 (324) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $1.06 | $1.06 | -$0 | 48% 2045-2201 (4246) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $0.57 | $0.57 | -$0 | 42% 979-1345 (2324) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $0.2 | $0.17 | -$0.04 | 17% 88-430 (518) |
Invested
$325.27
Value
$188.5
PnL
-$136.77
Record
62%
87-54 (141)
Invested
$42.07
Value
$42.81
PnL
+$0.74
Record
49%
3769-3940 (7709)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$1.77
Record
62%
202-122 (324)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
2045-2201 (4246)
Invested
$0.57
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
979-1345 (2324)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$0.04
Record
17%
88-430 (518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.