Will Singapore win on 2026-11-13?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $577 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$576.73
$0.12
97¢ → 97¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 97¢ | $320.1 | $320.1 | -$0 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97¢ | $117.69 | $117.72 | +$0.03 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $67.83 | $67.9 | +$0.07 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $40.38 | $40.36 | -$0.02 | 33% 558-1109 (1667) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $17.58 | $17.59 | +$0.01 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $7.56 | $7.56 | -$0 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.26 | $3.26 | -$0 | — 6-3 (9) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $2.21 | $2.25 | +$0.04 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
Invested
$320.1
Value
$320.1
PnL
-$0
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$117.69
Value
$117.72
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$67.83
Value
$67.9
PnL
+$0.07
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$40.38
Value
$40.36
PnL
-$0.02
Record
33%
558-1109 (1667)
Invested
$17.58
Value
$17.59
PnL
+$0.01
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
Invested
$7.56
Value
$7.56
PnL
-$0
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$3.26
Value
$3.26
PnL
-$0
Record
—
6-3 (9)
Invested
$2.21
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$0.04
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.