Will Qatar win on 2026-11-17?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 86¢ · $503 held · ends Nov 17

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$502.66

Combined PnL

-$3.71

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$481.51

Total Shares577

Combined PnL-$4.35

Yes2 traders

Total Value$21.15

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$0.64

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 85¢	$382.5	$375.75	-$6.75	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$44.45	$45.93	+$1.47	48% 44-48 (92)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 82¢	$29.54	$30.08	+$0.54	47% 938-1056 (1994)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$19.22	$19.82	+$0.6	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 82¢	$9.12	$9.29	+$0.17	52% 969-886 (1855)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 82¢	$7.44	$7.57	+$0.14	60% 938-634 (1572)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.3	$4.33	+$0.03	50% 910-924 (1834)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.27	$4.3	+$0.03	50% 975-969 (1944)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.25	$4.28	+$0.03	56% 888-693 (1581)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$1.29	$1.33	+$0.04	48% 2658-2887 (5545)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$382.5

Value

$375.75

PnL

-$6.75

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Invested

$44.45

Value

$45.93

PnL

+$1.47

Record

48%

44-48 (92)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$29.54

Value

$30.08

PnL

+$0.54

Record

47%

938-1056 (1994)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.22

Value

$19.82

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.12

Value

$9.29

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

969-886 (1855)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$7.44

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$0.14

Record

60%

938-634 (1572)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

910-924 (1834)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

975-969 (1944)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

888-693 (1581)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.